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BTC to 250k?Bitcoin Halving Cycles: Historical Gains and Future Predictions Bitcoin halving events, occurring approximately every four years, reduce the block reward miners receive by half. This built-in scarcity mechanism has historically triggered significant bull runs. Let’s compare the gains from each halving cycle and explore what they might predict for Bitcoin’s future price. Halving Cycle Performance First Halving (2012) Pre-Halving Price: ~$12 Peak Price: ~$1,150 (late 2013) Gain: ~9,500% Second Halving (2016) Pre-Halving Price: ~$650 Peak Price: ~$20,000 (December 2017) Gain: ~3,000% Third Halving (2020) Pre-Halving Price: ~$8,600 Peak Price: ~$69,000 (November 2021) Gain: ~700% Observations Each cycle has seen diminishing percentage returns, reflecting a maturing market and higher market capitalization. Despite lower percentage gains, Bitcoin’s absolute price increases have been significant, drawing in institutional investors and mainstream adoption. Predicting the Next Cycle The fourth halving is expected in April 2024, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. If historical trends hold: Conservative Estimate: A 300%-500% increase, aligning with diminishing returns, could place Bitcoin around $150,000-$200,000. Optimistic Scenario: Should macroeconomic factors like institutional adoption or regulatory clarity amplify demand, a price exceeding $250,000 is plausible. Factors to Consider Market Maturity: Institutional interest may stabilize volatility, leading to more sustainable growth. Regulation: Clearer policies could attract a wave of new investors. Macroeconomic Conditions: Inflation, monetary policy, and geopolitical tensions will continue influencing Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge. While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, Bitcoin’s halving cycles have consistently demonstrated their potential to drive significant price growth. As the next halving approaches, investors are poised for what could be another pivotal chapter in Bitcoin’s journey.
Long
by raycartier
Bitcoin Halving CyclesI'm sure this is already out there but here it is again... These are the 4-year bitcoin cycles. They’ve repeated every 4 years thus far. It happens because bitcoin’s code was written that way. This feature makes bitcoin scarcer every four years. We can use gold as a real-world analogy – let’s say that the flow of newly mined gold that comes into the market was somehow stifled. For example, a gold mine gets swallowed up by a volcano. I have no idea if that is a thing, but if that happened, and people knew about it, the price of gold would go up due to this event because the resource would be scarcer at that point. With bitcoin this 4-year known event is called the ‘halving’ and it makes the commodity scarcer. This means that the reward for the newly ‘mined’ bitcoin is cut in half every 4 years. In the above screenshot, the halving dates are the yellow lines. The green lines are the new all-time high price that comes some number of days/weeks/months post-halving. As you can see, it’s rather predictable when the new all-time high comes in when measured from the halving. During the bull run that is tied to the halving, the whole of the crytpo market (usually) goes up too. This means that most of the other coins go up, and any crypto related stocks go up. For example, COIN (Coinbase’s ticker symbol) or RIOT (the company I invested in where I turned $15k from a 401k into $250k.. but then it tanked and I ended up with only $150k.. <> and that all happened in a very short period, like 3 to 5 months). But we shall see. I think it's interesting that there is this eclipse coming up on the same month/year as the halving.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by alexkeaton
4
Bitcoin Halving Cycles | Cycle Bottom to Previous ATHWe're going to take a look at the previous cycle bottoms to previous all-time highs and the time it took from those two points. Our current cycle bottom was FTX collapsing in November, with them creating the cycle top back in 2021 for the notorious double top. The only other scenario in history where we've retested the cycle bottom levels was in the 2015 bear market, however, that came relatively quickly and we reversed quite strongly after that. No cycle is exactly alike, as that would be too easy, however, we can get a grip on the general timelines / where we are in the current cycle. This cycle is a little bit different in the sense that in the past 3 cycles, we've had a 2-year bear market starting in the odd years, however, this time, we truly bottomed in November '22 across the board. History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. 2012 Cycle Bottom to Previous ATH: From the bottom of the cycle, it took 392 days for Bitcoin to re-claim it's previous all-time highs. 2015 Cycle Bottom to Previous ATH: From the bottom of the cycle, it took 658 days for Bitcoin to re-claim it's previous all-time highs. 2019 Cycle Bottom to Previous ATH: From the bottom of the cycle, it took 644 days for Bitcoin to re-claim it's previous all-time highs. Where do we stand today? Basing this idea completely on historical trends / 4-year cycles, we can conclude that the three cycles took 392, 658, and 644 days, respectively. Also something to note, volume has been decreasing on Bitcoin since the first cycle in terms of Bitcoin traded. This could easily be marked off as increase in price = less whole coins moving around. Anyways, let's take the mean of these three numbers and apply it to our current cycle bottom found on August 1st of 2022. 392 + 658 + 644 = 1701 / 3 = 564.67 days on average from cycle bottom to previous ATH. That would mark us off at February 19th, 2024 reaching the previous ATH: Let's say we want to take out the first cycle as an outlier, as 658 and 644 are fairly close to each other. Add those two up and we get 1,302. Divide that by 2 and we get 651. We'd get a date around May 13th, 2024 which would be about a month after the halving. The halving is right around the corner and the only question is if we're going to see a buy the hype leading up to it and a sell the news, or a buy-train after the halving without a pump fake. We've already seen the Litecoin halving on August 2nd, 2023 (earlier this month), and the next Bitcoin Halving is coming up in April of next year. As always, please do your own research, this chart is intended for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. 🚀
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by kyer
33
Bitcoin Halving's Impact AnalysisBitcoin Halving Cycles Performance (Pre/Post 1 year performance) Halving's Pre/Post year Performance: 1. 26th Nov 2012 - Pre 416% / Post 7715% 2. 9th July 2016 - Pre 110% / Post 283% (The full move including after the 24 month period was c.955%) 3. 11th May 2020 - Pre 76% / Post 423% 4. 27th April 2024 - Pre 50% / Post 200% Pre Summary (from H2) - 110% - 76% - 50% prediction (reducing by c.25% each halving). Post Summary (from H2) - 955% - 423% - 200% prediction (reduces by c. 50% each halving) You can see the pattern in the reduced returns in each halving. The pre halving returns typically reduce by 25% a halving and the post halving returns reduce by 100% per halving. We ignore the first having as it was exponential introductory growth of the asset. Important Dates are 27th April 2024 (halving date). Good place to skim or wait for a pullback). Also the date of 25th April 2025. This is a softer date, a take profit early date potentially, most cycles have ended in Q4 of the given year thus some chips should be left on the table post April 2025 depending on the continued performance up to that point. Always a pleasure, I hope its been insightful Puka
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by PukaCharts
6
BITCOIN Halving cycles and Pump %Monthly #Bitcoin chart with Halving dates what is notable is how much the % increase in PA has been dropping each halving. 2012 Halving 10K% rise after 2016 Halving 3,5K% rise after 2020 Halving 700 % rise after Projected PA below would also be 700% BUT, Bitcoin is far more public now and the Halving Pumps will be talked about aLot. Could the Next halving actually be pumped a Lot earlier than previous dates May well be a great idea to grab your NOW..because the price WILL go mental as the world sees the TradFi recession also. 2024 is going to be an interesting year to say the least
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
2
Bitcoin halving cycles and BTC targetBitcoin is such a different asset! And one of the biggest differences are halvings. The cycle of the market is strictly correlated with halving (green lines) dates and this has been working since BTC start. In this post, I'll show last 3 halvings. Each time a halving occurs, we have 1,5 years of bull market. A very strong bull market. In 2016 we saw a 3.336% return in 1,5 years after halving. In 2020 we saw 645% return after halving in 1,5 years. And in both cases, we lived in a flat (and volatile) market for 2,5 years where everyone blamed the cryptos. Current situation Now, we did the halving in April 2024 and until 2026 we will be in the middle of a bull market for BTC. The break of the blue expanding triangle is just one mor econfirmation for the bull trend, so the price will go at least to $200k before 2025 ends. ¿Why $200k ? BTC is a very big market right now, and getting more and more money inside is more and more difficult, so seeing rallies of 3k% as we saw in 2016 is imposible, that would mean BTC has more money than the whole world! But doubling the price is still posible! Do you agree with the 200.000k$ as a reasonable target for this bull market? Where do you see the price by the end of next year when this cycle ends?
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by TopChartPatterns
1
The Truth About Bitcoins Current SituationHello My Dear Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this middle-to-long-term-analysis about the BTCUSDs price movement. As we are still in uncertain terrain right now it is important to look at BITCOIN with a rational head, as it should always be the motto to trade what we see not what we think, many people call for the complete moon shot or the fall to zero the next months this is why I take a calm eye on the current situation facing BTCUSD to point out where we have to go with the bitcoin-adventure to succeed in the markets, the big question in the corona-crisis now for the cryptocurrency market is if bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is an anticyclical investment like food-companies, armor or pharmaceutics. This is the big question now because BITCOIN is still trading between the lines with different bearish and bullish signals coming in as on the other side the economy of many countries of the world is in a confirmed recession and stocks in a confirmed bear market. Please read the whole analysis to have a full-depth perspective! Thank you. Halving-Cycles: First of all the third and next halving day will be the 2nd May 2020 this year, it is only one month to go and bitcoin is still stuck in consolidation, today this is the first difference to the last two halving cycles which you see in my chart, there was a clear accumulation before the halving cycles before BITCOIN exploded bullishly to the first halving-cycle target at 1162 and the second halving-cycle target at 19666, now as we have only one month to go and we aren't in a confirmed accumulation right now this is a bad sign that the next halving cycle may not confirm like the last two ones. But this date and the time after this date shouldn't be ignored because as the empirical approach to the last halving-dates shows is that it confirmed every time and BITCOIN made amazing 90.52 times more in price in the first halving cycle and in the second amazing 28.74 times more. Looking at this fact from a mathematical point of view the next confirmed halving-cycle would shoot bitcoin to the moon! But this is only half of the The 20- And 50- EMA: Now when we look at bitcoins past we saw two confirmed bear-markets at all, these two were confirmed with the 20-EMA and the 50-EMA, as you can see these changes in the trend in my chart, these where confirmed bear-markets. The situation now is whether in a bear nor a bull-market it is still consolidating. But what is important right now, as you can watch it in my chart, is that we are shortly before a bearish confirmation of the 20-EMA crossing the 50-EMA down, as we are trading below the EMAs this could be a possible bearish signal to the downside when we cant develop to trade above the EMAs again, as you can see this signal signaled the confirmed bear-markets in the past, there are also other bearish indications which signal a bearish continuation like the Thunder-CLoud-Suite which closed recently bearish on the weekly chart if the EMAs confirm it will add one more confirmed bearish indicator to the list! The Big Triangle And Where It Will Be Confirmed: In anticipation of bitcoins further price-movement we have to keep the big symmetrical triangle in the head, which is still developing and will show a break in either direction. You can see it developing in the middle of the red falling support line and the major rising black trend-line of the whole bitcoin-big-picture. There is a definite end-date where this triangle will end, it will be after the halving date, the triangle will definitely be confirmed at the 14th December this year. This is an important date because it is highly probable that the recession and bear-market decline will still progress at this time, so the outcome can be bearish when BTCUSD confirms to be procyclical going along with the stocks, indices and real estate market. Otherwise when we see bitcoin stabilizing above the 20 and 50 EMA, the thunder cloud suite and other factors at the local time-frame there is the possible breakout to the upside which has to be confirmed definitely with the full break-up of the huge falling red resistance line! So my friends thank you for watching my analysis, I hope everybody of you could get some important insight and where the journey will bring us the next time, feel free to support, thanks for everybody who is supporting, my friends. As I always say it is the motivation to transform opportunities into gold remains the most significant tool for a trader. this is why we should take the market seriously and make the best of every situation. ;) FAREWELL Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by VincePrince
31
Here Is How Bitcoin Can Develop Its Way Up!Hello, Traders Investors And Community, we are approaching a historical date the next time, not more than 10 days left before the third bitcoin halving will launch, in this purpose, there are some important signs which I detected in the daily bitcoin chart and which will affect the bitcoin price action the next time. In the last halving-cycles, we had a first initial small dip after the halving and initiating the whole market-cycle before going up and providing a heavy bull-market. In this current moment, we can see a similar mechanism as the supply which is causing after the halving pushing the price a little bit down and after that higher. According to this subject, I made an analysis which I recommend you to watch. When looking at my chart, you can see that we are approaching the upper resistance a third time in a row now, the last days we tested the resistance line a third time and had a generic pull-back which is normally after testing such a rising trend-line, currently, we see bitcoin testing the level on a short-term basis a second time and as we can see the price begins to struggle in this area, this is why it is within the possible spectrum that bitcoin will setup for a stronger pull-back, this initial pull-back is highly matching with the halving cycles and the resulting fractals already mentioned. When bitcoin falls below the 8320 zones I see a high possibility for a continuation to the next meaningful support-zone which is at the 7330 levels, not only do we have there the 38.2 % Fibonacci-support but also the support formed in the previous up-trend with its highs formed in the up-trend. If we do approach this level it will highly likely confirm as support and therefore get us back up! When this does not happen the next support is at 6030 which is the 61.8 % Fibonacci-Support. The fact that we are trading in a 312-day old consolidation phase, which is not little for bitcoin makes it clearer that bitcoin will have a heavy breakout in the middle-to-long-term-perspective. Also what we can see here and is important in this structure is the big broadening wedge which is forming here and could confirm when we are approaching higher from the 38.2 % Fibonacci-support. What is amazing is that it is also matching with the halving-cycles. It is one more factor in the schedule to decide bitcoins outcome. Friends we should always look at the highest possible outcome and for now, it is in the potential for bitcoin to move higher above the falling huge resistance-line. After we get above this resistance-line the overall broadening wedge is confirmed and the logical target, therefore, will be the range between 12600 and 13800 which you can see marked in my chart with the box. Before that happens we have a fundamental support/resistance level that has to be taken out. Bitcoin is in a historical situation where it has to decide the next step and if it is going to break like expected. The broadening wedge scenario has to be confirmed rightly! Before that, we can not wether bitcoin begins to struggle again or the main target at 12600 and 13800 will be in play! Therefore we need to keep patient and look at the chart with a clear head not fall for the illogical approach in the markets many people falling into. Trading is always about elevating the highest possible outcomes and therefore trading these accordingly, at the moment there are some good signs which playing into the scenario of a breakout to the upside but there is still a potential possibility for downside remaining as the middle-term trend is still weak which shouldn't be ignored! In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, will be great when you support for more market insight! “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” FAREWELL Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by VincePrince
19
Bitcoin Price and the Altcoin Rally: Part IIBitcoin Price and the Altcoin Rally: Part II Interpretation: 1) The first green vertical line represents Bitcoin rising above the highest price (i.e., $1,163) reached between the 2012 and 2016 Bitcoin halving (see ref 1 for discussion of the Bitcoin Halving Cycles Runs). The second green vertical line represents Bitcoin rising above the highest price (i.e., $19,666) reached between the 2016 and 2020 Bitcoin halving. 2) The yellow vertical line represents Ether rising above above the highest price (i.e., $19.21) reached between the 2012 and 2016 Bitcoin halving. 3) The first red vertical line represents the peak price for Bitcoin for the 2016 Bitcoin Halving Cycle. The second red vertical line represents the peak price for Bitcoin for the 2016 Bitcoin Halving Cycle. 4) The X-axis represents time. 5) The Y - A axis represents the percent of bitcoin dominance for all crypto coins. Therefore, as the percent of bitcoin dominance drops, the prices of Altcoins are rising relative to the price of Bitcoin . The Y - Z axis represents Bitcoin's price. The Y - B axis represents Ether's price. Important Points: 1) The Altcoin Rally began when Bitcoin and Ether reached and surpassed the old highs (i.e., $1,163 and $19.21 respectively) from the previous 2012 Bitcoin Halving Cycle. Induction suggests that we can expect a similar beginning of a new Altcoin Rally once Bitcoin and Ether surpass the old highs (i.e., $19,666 and $1419.96 respectively) of the last 2016 Bitcoin Halving Cycle. 2) The timing of the last Altcoin Rally suggests that a new Altcoin Rally may last a little longer after Bitcoin hits its peak, but fall soon after Ether has reached its peak price for the 2020 Bitcoin Halving Cycle. Induction also suggests that smart speculators should begin exiting alt coin positions aggressively at these tops. See the red vertical lines and the Altcoin Rally end. 3) Previous cycles and rallies suggest that Bitcoin will outperform Altcoins when the next crypto winter begins. Smart speculators should attempt to sell Altcoins early and remain in Bitcoin or cash until the next Bitcoin Halving Cycle begins in 2024, and in particular, a new high in Bitcoin and Ether are reached for the 2024 Bitcoin Halving Cycle. 4) I initially believed that the Altcoin Rally would begin when Bitcoin reached a new hew from the previous halving cycle, however, closer analysis shows that both Bitcoin and then soon after Ether reached new highs before the Altcoin rally began last cycle(i.e., 2016 Bitcoin Halving Cycle). This suggests that the 2020 Bitcoin Halving Cycle's Altcoin Rally may not begin until Ether rises above $1419.96. My previous rhetorical analysis requires only slight modification to make sense of these new insights. Further Altcoin Rally Analysis: 1) The important questions are “Why did the Altcoin Rally begin when it did?”, and “Why was this rally so pronounced, intense, and abrupt?”. I attempt to answer these questions using a rhetorical analysis of the potential cognitive states of market participants. A rhetorical analysis is an empirical examination of the plausible and probable arguments available to actors in a given context to justify and or criticize actions and or judgments about reality. For example, prior to a new all time high in Bitcoin , it is relatively easier for bears to argue that the current rally is a “dead cat bounce” or just a lull in the current bear market. However, as prices approach the all time high this argument becomes harder and harder to make both internally (i.e., justifications and/or rationalizations we provide ourselves) and externally (i.e., linguistic statements we share with others). Similarly, bullish arguments become easier to develop and deploy as prices rise and approach the all time high. In short, as price rises, we see a decrease in the production and persuasiveness (i.e., perceived rationality) of bearish arguments and an increase in the production and perceived rationality of bullish arguments. These changes become more pronounced and intense as we approach new all time highs. In addition these arguments should hold for both Bitcoin and Ether. Bitcoin is needed to justify the crypto space in general. However, the Ether high is needed to justify the movement from Bitcoin into Alts. Moreover, I theorize that something very different happens once we break or get very close to the all time high. Specifically, I think a symbolic “big bang” or rhetorical critical mass moment is reached where the rhetorical dynamics governing bullish rationality reach a criticality. The cognitive or persuasive potential of bullish rhetorical arguments expand violently and exponentially, while the rationality and plausibility of bearish arguments collapse suddenly and dramatically. Once the old high is breached, it becomes untenable to make the bearish argument that we are still in a bear market. Market participants making such arguments appear both irrational to others as well as themselves. The rhetorical resources available to and marshalled for the bear case diminishes irrevocably and quickly. In contrast, bulls no longer need to expend rhetorical resources making the counter argument that the bear market is over. These freed rhetorical resources do not flow slowly and incrementally into the cognitive consciousness of market participants, but flood into the rhetorical imagination creating an argumentative echo chamber that extends and expands the cognitive horizon of what is possible and plausible. The threshold of what is reasonable falls precipitously, and in this new attention landscape, altcoins and their myriad business models and diverse future worlds appear rational and persuasive. The symbolic “big bang” shifts the cognitive arena from a presumption of “crypto currencies will not survive to” to the presumption of “crypto currencies will thrive and disrupt/transform the world”. Bitcoin hitting a new high combined with Ether hitting a new high focuses and increases argument that "crypto is a great investment and altcoins (e.g., Ether) are the next great opportunity in this space. Finally, once Bitcoin tops and Ether tops, the bullish arguments start to falter in response to bearish arguments of "overvaluation" and "excess" for both the crypto space (BTC) and altcoins (ETH) in particular. I will discuss these ideas further as I think more about the concept of a rhetorical “big bangs” and the creation of argumentative contexts that allow for bubbles and bull runs in general. I will also do some work and thinking about the rhetorical dynamics of the "flippening" (i.e., the possibility that Ethereum or some other alt would over take Bitcoin in market cap.) and its effect on the Altcoin Rally. If you are interested in this type or similar types of rhetorical analyses, please see my previous work on the Bitcoin Halving Analysis. References 1 Bitcoin Halving Reward and Price History Analysis: Part III
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by septimius
2
#BTC #bitcoin Halving cyclescycle 3 (Red trend-line) did diverge again from Cycle 2 (green trend-line) and priced its top considerably lower, which is in line with the Theory of Diminishing returns. Notice that this is a Halving centered approach. Every Cycle is measured before and after its respective Halving. E.g. Cycle 1 (blue trend-line) starts from the start of the data set and ends on Halving 2, i.e. displaying the price action centered around Halving 1. for comparison purposes, I've centered all on Halving 3 . Probable Cycle Tops and Bottoms As you see a more accurate estimate of Cycle Tops is measuring the Fib extensions progressively starting from the Jan 09 Genesis Block (0.0 Fib) and Halving 1 (1.0 Fib). The first one is the 1.3 Fib ext, which is around the Top of Cycle 1. Then Cycle 2 peaked around the 2.3 Fib ext and remarkably, Cycle 3 (the current one), made a top around the 3.3 Fib time ext. They follow a similar progression from the Genesis Block and Halving 1. The Bottom of Cycle 1 was around the 1.6 Fib ext after Halving 1 and the Bottom of Cycle 1 was around the 2.6 Fib ext after Halving 1. Technically, if the bottom Fib projections work as well as the top ones, the Bottom of Cycle 3 should be around the 3.6 Fib ext, which is around the end of Sep 2022. Bear Cycles and Rally Phases A combination of the above, portrays a rough estimate of how the current Bear Cycle will unfold and that is from the 3.3 Fib to the 3.6 Fib (red area). This is respective to all previous Bear Cycles as well. As for the Rally Phases (green area), those start after each Halving and end on the +.3 Fib extension. The Rally Phase of Cycle 3 for example started on Halving 3. The next Halving is on March 2024, so there is still plenty of time before this aggressive, parabolic part of the Bull Cycle starts. On the other hand, buying at the bottom (as mentioned the next one is projected according to this model to be around Sep 2022), always gives the lowest risk and highest return. Based on this model there isn't but another 4 months left for this opportunity, but as this Cycle turned out to be the smoothest in history . it is possible to see something of a sideways price action for the remainder of the Bear Cycle instead of a 'traditional' capitulation candle.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by atal_Cryptosignals
Parallel channels provide great visualsI've really started to like parallel channels a lot as part of very simple TA. On the daily or weekly charts in particular. It works pretty well for Bitcoin, it works especially well for stock indices, particularly SPX/SPY for longer term trends. It's just an excellent visual of waning buying pressure as upwards price movement starts to fall out of an ascending channel, or waning selling pressure as price action starts to go sideways and up plus out of a descending channel. With that being said, the most recent trend shift that may well be developing is Bitcoin showing weakness in the ascending channel as it just hit its high for 2023 as seen above. This is in combination with this market cycle indicator potentially indicating we're at or near the top for the crypto space. It's also taking a bit of history into account, with Bitcoin halving cycles. Post a miner payout halving, Bitcoin tends to enjoy it's strongest bull runs for anywhere between 12-18 months after. Then that's followed by exactly 12 months of selling off. That 12 months of selling off can be followed by a smaller rally/mini bull cycle, but that eventually starts to come back down as the next halving approaches. This is why I've been likening 2023 to what happened in 2019. Obviously, history won't repeat exactly, but it often does rhyme. Now, channels are usually only able to be put up with some retrospective, but the idea is that the channel can at least give you advance warning when a shift is about to occur, then some time later you can put up the next channel as support and resistance of the current trend become established, project it out a ways so you can see when it does start to diverge out of the channel. Above is the late 2021 all of 2022 Bitcoin bear market. That parallel set would have been able to have been put up months before it started the bottoming process, and did great at showing the selling pressure slowing, and the price action exiting out above of the channel before it did its final drop in December. Go back some more. The giant parabolic move it started in 2H 2020 and carried into 1H 2021: It stays within that channel, but that last rally in April, it's a pretty weak looking all time high at that point as it's fallen to the bottom of the channel. Let's try with SPX. This is coming out of the COVID crash, which had a pretty radical upwards trajectory compared to many years prior. I lined up according to the top line mostly, trying to hit two of the early peaks, it also happened to go through a gap-down during the sell off in March 2020. I also was aiming to get it close to parallel with the 4 months where price action kind of normalized 2H 2020 into 1H 2021, where there was a pretty consistent trajectory the highs had. After a small amount of turmoil, Feb-March 2021, it resumed another 4 month period of consistent upwards movement, but this time, at a slightly less aggressive trajectory than before, which was not so easy to see unless you drew a line parallel to the previous 4 month period that had a consistent upwards march. Then more turmoil September into October 2021, eventually followed by all time highs in December, but by that point, the highs were now mid channel instead of near the top, clearly showing waning buying pressure. And it indeed was followed by a near year-long sell-off. Let's go there next: The top trend line was well-established pretty early on in 2022, often got referred to as the MOAT (Mother Of All Trend Lines). If we put the bottom of the channel at the June 2022 lows, that then makes the subsequent October lows show that maybe sell pressure is waning some, as it didn't come back down to challenge that lower line. By January '23, it was becoming more obvious that we were setting our first higher low. We did get close to re-challenging that low very briefly in March, and it's been more up than anything ever since. Time to start drawing ascending channels again. I've tried a couple spots, and it just looks like we're in one of our most bullish moments right now. There of course will be small corrections, but until a larger falling out of these channels becomes pretty obvious, I wouldn't try fighting the bulls... This is the main one I'm looking at for the moment, I've also tried drawing a smaller channel for the more recent, aggressive upwards move from May through now, but removed it for this larger trend channel for clarity. You start drawing multiple channels, the chart gets very busy, very quickly. For the larger market cycle top, I'll be keeping my eyes on this channel as well as www.tradingview.com . If I see both a falling out of the ascending channel plus an upwards divergence of the lows in VIX/VVIX, it's time to go full bear, sell sell sell! Until then, run with the bulls. More often than not, it's ill-advised to go against them. For the record, from this point I'm starting to turn bear on Bitcoin for the remainder of the year, but equities still likely have at least several more months of going up pretty rapidly, very similar to 2019. Equities bulls are the ones I won't be fighting here. I actually won't be fighting Bitcoin bulls either, but I am definitely not a buyer here, where I will continue to be long equities. But, if I'm right and Bitcoin finds another nice supported low near the end of this year, that will likely be the point to buy back in/add for the post-halving mania that will ensue.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by dieseldub
Crucial decision point coming for BTC, should we buy?We are at a crucial decision point in BTC. BTC has tested its major support of 25300 and even dipped below for a brief second. On August 12th BTC closed below its upward trend line that had held its value for 11 days straight. Even though it's price stayed in consolidation moving sideways, many indicators were projecting a massive dump. Thankfully the support of 25300 has held for now, but this may not be the case for much longer. However, there is some good news, BTC has had quite a large jump in volume the last 2 days. The Sell Volume Average crossed the Buy Volume Average on August 15th, most of it was people panic selling, but regardless volume is not a bad thing considering how stagnant the market has been lately. Coming August 28th, BTC's upward trend line that formed at the beginning of this pump in December of 2022 will be crossing with the downward trend line that caused BTC to stagger in this pump from 31k to 24.8k. This trend line cross is quite crucial especially since volume is now in play and BTC is very volatile now. There is a high likely hood the upward trend line will be tested in the upcoming few weeks, even if 25.3k manages to hold. The more times it is tested, the higher the chance it will break the support. If the support is broken around August 28th where the downward trend line is crossing and so close in price point, theres a high chance it will pivot under the downward trend line and we will have a new strong resistance that is on a major slope and could revert all of BTC's progress. There is also the possibility of BTC consolidating and maintaining above the support of 25.3k, this is good, but if we don't gain a strong bullish position before November 7th where the support of 25.3k intersects the upward trend line, we could likewise see a bearish shift below. All of this sounds rather negative, however, aside from just having more volume in the market there are some positive things to be thankful for. One of which is the RSI. Currently RSI is very low and BTC is very oversold. Consolidation will cause it to rise and even out but it also leaves room for a correction that may happen. If you want an RSI that doesn't even out due to consolidation, our Professional Suite of Indicators will be available for sale in the up coming weeks. Our oscillator also shows we've had heavy bearish momentum with a strong volume strength, however the predictive MA is crossing above the regular MA meaning there is a chance for a reversal correction incoming. When it comes to understanding the market, Indicators are very important, and having the right data matters. However, there is more to understanding the market than just indicators. Politics either local or geopolitical and other factors have a big role in what happens in the market. Lets discuss one that we know is happening soon and that will play a major role. BTC will see its halving likely in April of 2024. Historically speaking, BTC has a few cycles that go hand in hand with its halving. BTC pumps for 200+ days after the halving which result in massive gains. BTC then dumps for a similar timeframe as the pump, resulting in a loss of about 30% of the gains made during the pump. Then follows Accumulation, Expansion and Reaccumulation which results in small pump, dumps and consolidation. We are currently experiencing large consolidation with small pump and dumps between. However, historically BTC will start to pump a few months before the halving and maintain this momentum for 8+ months following the halving. If history is to repeat itself we will likely see BTC starting this pump late 2023 to early 2024. Here is a basic example of how people were estimating BTC to be for the 2020 halving: There is a high likely hood that the 2024 halving will see a new ATH. If historic trend analysis isn't your thing, well theres another cherry on top that goes along with the halving coming in 2024. Currently it costs an average of $17,000 USD to mine 1 BTC, which means theres a low chance BTC will ever go below that, otherwise theres no point to mine. When BTC halves in April 2024, this cost will rise to over $30k USD. This means the new bottom that BTC will likely face after April 2024 is 30k. Based on a lot of factors in play, BTC will likely struggle for the next few months until it eventually takes off due to the halving factor. So the question remains.. should we buy? IMO, right now is a great time to buy, and if you're patient, likely soon will be an even better time to buy if BTC struggles to maintain its bullish position. Interested in learning how to chart and trade? Our Professional Suite of Indicators will be released for sale within a few weeks. If you would like to be notified once the website is finished and they're for sale, please shoot us a PM.
Long
by YinYangAlgorithms
BTC/NASDAQ100 CORRELATION ANALYSIS+PREDICTONWhen I was going through different correlations of asset prices, I noticed bitcoin's correlation to the nasdaq100 went to some sort of cycle, which corresponded with the last two bitcoin halving cycles (4-year cycles). This I used as the basis of my analysis. I also marked my area of interest for long term buys. Of course, I can not guarantee these price levels get hit, nor the bottom is not in already. Also, I would not say it is consensus the bottom is in already, though many people think, it certainly is already (somehow being bearish feels contrarian right now). I think, though, that because of the macroeconomic circumstances (inverted yield curve, which has not yet reverted), there certainly is a possibility of BTC still making a new low. If the magic 4-year cycle of bitcoin plays out (if you go down the rabbit hole, it is quite crazy), the bottom may be in already. Though, this analysis is indicating BTC may bottom out one year later than the previous ones. My crystal ball is telling me it could be at the end of the year or in q1 of the next, though I believe anything is possible. My long term view on BTC though is quite bullish, and I think it may go to $100k+ during its next cycle. The effect of the coming halving though will be smaller than the previous ones, as the inflation rate only shrinks by a lower percentage each halving. Though, still after its next halving BTC will have an annual inflation rate of under 1% which is about half of golds inflation rate + bitcoin has some other superiorities compared to gold as store of value and money, which could make one assume it could reach a similar market cap. Therefore, $200k could certainly possible in this decade. My future projections (after the bear market floor target gets hit) are just speculation, to which it will be fun looking back in a few years. I would appreciate any thoughts, views or feedback. Cheers
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by lordhavemercy1337
Possible Bitcoin 2021 top on October 9th if this plays outIn the previous two bitcoin halving cycles if you take the number of days between the bottom of the bear market and the top of the following bull market cycle with the halving in the middle, you will find that. 50.5% of the total days fall between the bottom and the halving. The other 49.5% of the days fall between the halving and the market top. You can see this laid out on the chart for the two previous cycle and a possible top date of October 9th for the current 2021 cycle. In 2012 halving cycle there were 742 days between bottom and top. 375 days (50.5%) from the bottom (19th Nov 2011) and the halving (28 Nov 2012) and 367 (49.5%) days between the halving (29 Nov 2012) and the cycle top (30 Nov 2013) In the 2016 halving cycle there were 1068 days between bottom and top 540 days (50.5%) from the bottom (14 Jan 2015) and the halving (9 Jul 2016) and 522 days (49.5%) between the halving (9 Jul 2016) and the cycle top (17 Dec 2017) In the 2020 halving cycle if the ratio of 50.5% : 49.5% between bottom and halving and halving and top remains the same then we can get a pretty close approximation of when a top might be We know we have 520 days between the bear market bottom (15 Dec 2018) and the halving (18 May 2020) If 520 days is 50.5% that means the whole cycle (100%) would be about 1029 days. Taking our cycle top to October 9th 2021 This would give 509 days (49.5%) between the halving and the top. Now of course it could be different this time the cycle may extend out much longer who knows. However if we start going truly parabolic in late September towards this October 9th date with 10k+ daily candles and price is in the 200-300k range then I will be looking at this very seriously and considering exit options. It's just another piece of data I"m going to be using and looking at to give me and indication of a time to exit.
BNC:BLXLong
by phrent
2
REVEALING BITCOIN HALVING-CYCLES - 120.000 USD AFTER NEXT ONE?! _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Hello traders investors and community. There is an interesting observation which i made and want to share with you today. It is revealing the magic bitcoin halving-cycle in which we seen huge growing of price after the past halvings. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The last weeks we are facing a consolidation period, exactly what we have seen in the past before halving break-outs happened. Before the first halving and break-out BTCUSD consolidated between 2 and 15 USD, after the halving we have seen an enormous growth of 90.52 X before the first major top formed. The same happened after the second halving, in this case BTCUSD made28.74 X after a longer consolidation period in which price consolidated between 160 - 700 USD. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ In my chart you can see the red boxes which show the consolidation periods before BTCUSD broke out and entered the growth phase (green-boxes), exactly after the halving! _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ I am expecting the consolidation period in which we are trading now to hold on until the halving or beyond, after this we will face the next big bitcoin-halving growth period of BTCUSD. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Consider this: We made 90.52 times price-growth after the first and 28.74 after the second halving. Now this gives an average of 59.63 X. Just when we underbeat this mark and make 10 times more after the next halving that would be 100.000 - 120.000 USD. Looking on the information i am expecting a similar growth-period for BTCUSD like the one seen after the first halving. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Okay hopefully everybody enjoyed! May all luck and happiness come to you! For more market insight feel free to support! The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be used to take action in markets. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by VincePrince
26
BTC benefitting from global liquidity and ETF narrativeBitcoin continues to follow it's halving cycle process. Today it's hit the highest price it's been since since April 2022. The short term price is highly dependent on the narrative that we currently expect one or more Bitcoin ETFs to be approved within weeks. If that's rejected we may, of course, see a major price unwind, but even if that happened it's extremely unlikely to get below $31k. We could wick down to the orange trend line (currently around FWB:25K ) and still be in an overall uptrend. In my view, the last hope for the bears was destroyed in October when BTC closed the week above that orange trend line. I don't believe I've adjusted the size of the yellow box we're in since I created it on the chart in 2022. It was meant to represent the potential high and low potential for this pre-halving period after the "Low" bar in December 2022. Right now we're at the very top of that box which shows Bitcoin is acting stronger than a normal cycle. That's really impressive given how strong the "Bitcoin is dead" narrative was 1 year ago. I still assume that we won't make new all time highs ahead of the Bitcoin halving (~ April 2024), but if a bunch of ETFs are approved and they are advertising to win market share we could get an unprecedented price pop. Indicators on the chart: Bitcoin's price is supported by improvements in the Global Central Banks liquidity as shown in the top indicator panel which turned green in November 2023 after it's September 2023 low. I think Bitcoin believers should be wary of believing in Bitcoin narratives when they go against global liquidity which has run parallel to Bitcoin halving cycles for much of it's existence. The BTC MVRV Z score indicator shows we're nowhere near the cycle top or bottom right now. The BTC Flows indicator is a new open source indicator I've uploaded to Tradingview. It's based on an indicator created by TheTradingParrot. It shows whether or not big whale accounts are taking BTC off exchanges (green) or onto exchanges (red). Right now we're seeing whales are moving BTC onto exchanges and this means we should be somewhat cautious as we see new highs, whales may be quick to dump if the ETF narrative weakens. Overall, I think that there are many investors really wanting to see an opportunity to enter on a lower price. Therefore until that changes there isn't much chance there will be a major opportunity to get into the uptrend at a "cheap" price. Those with patience are likely to see a greater than FWB:12K retracement somewhere in the next 6 months but what will the local high be? $45k? $50? FWB:65K ? Time will tell. Good luck on your investments and trades in 2024.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Abzorba
Pre-Halving Purchase Opportunity in BitcoinBTC now - 70k As we approach the anticipated Bitcoin halving, it's crucial to analyze the current market state to identify investment opportunities and understand potential challenges affecting the cryptocurrency's valuation. Our approach will include a detailed technical analysis, along with an assessment of the underlying fundamentals shaping the current landscape. Technical Analysis: Observing the dynamics between Tether dominance and Bitcoin, we identify consistent patterns suggesting support trends, with the ascending trendline (LTA) acting as a reliable indicator for potential reversals. The current market exhibits a high funding rate, signaling temporary saturation, while open interest remains relatively stable. This discrepancy may indicate a disconnect between trading activity and overall investor sentiment, suggesting a potential short-term correction. An analysis of trading volume reveals a significant divergence between buys and sells, with buying volume not adequately keeping pace with price increases. Additionally, the formation of a triple top on the price chart indicates substantial resistance, which could trigger a downward correction. Despite expected corrections, we observe a consistent upward trend, with the current impulsive wave possibly nearing its inflection point. The 350-day moving average multiplied by two has acted as a crucial support for Bitcoin's price, reinforcing the long-term uptrend. Historical Fundamentals: The Fear and Greed Index has reached historically high levels, indicating overly optimistic market sentiment. Such optimism often precedes a significant correction, suggesting caution for investors. Examining previous Bitcoin halving cycles, we consistently observe a retracement phase before the event. This underscores the importance of considering historical context when assessing future market prospects. Conclusion: Considering both technical aspects and historical fundamentals, it's essential to maintain a balanced approach amid the current cryptocurrency market landscape. While the excitement surrounding the halving and increasing institutional adoption are legitimate reasons for optimism, it's crucial to recognize potential challenges and volatilities that may arise. We are at a critical point in the market cycle, where a temporary correction is likely, offering opportunities to enter the market at more attractive levels. Monitoring market liquidations can provide valuable insights into potential trend reversals. In summary, maintaining a disciplined investment strategy, such as Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA), can help investors successfully navigate market fluctuations and capitalize on long-term opportunities offered by Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DShort
by Vaultfy
2